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Justin Herbert Superflex Value & Dynasty Ranking
- Position
- QB
- Team
- LAC
- ECR Rank
- 17
- Tier
- B1
- Age
- 28
Justin Herbert is a QB for the Chargers who enters the 2026 season at age 28, and our superflex rankings place him in tier B1 with an expert consensus rank (ECR) of 17 and an average draft position of 77.4. Our current projection, built from Sleeper depth-chart data and a 16-game baseline, calls for roughly 3,089.4 passing yards and 20.6 passing touchdowns, plus about 187.2 rushing yards and 1.9 scores on the ground, which lands him near 19.4 fantasy points per game. The market is sleeping on him a little: his average ADP of 77.4 sits 60.4 picks behind his ECR of 17, so you can usually draft him one to two rounds after his true consensus value. The schedule also leans friendly: his playoff-window opponents (weeks 15 through 17) average a 12 defensive rank against a 14.1 regular-season mark, a soft stretch for a title run.
Draft-Value Verdict
Strong value pick — his ADP sits 60.4 picks behind his ECR.
Average ADP: 77.4 vs ECR 17 (value).
ADP Comparison
| Format | ADP | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 77.4 | flat |
| Sleeper | 77.4 | flat |
| PrizePicks | 77.4 | flat |
2026 Schedule Edge
He draws a league-average regular-season schedule and a soft playoff schedule in weeks 15-17.
- Regular-season avg def rank
- 14.1 of 32
- Playoff-window avg (wks 15-17)
- 12 of 32
Week-by-Week Matchup Matrix
| Week | Opp | QB def rank | PPG allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAR | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | TEN | 9 | 16.3 |
| 3 | DEN | 7 | 15.6 |
| 4 | SF | 5 | 14.9 |
| 5 | DET | 3 | 14.2 |
| 6 | LV | 32 | 24.5 |
| 7 | GB | 30 | 23.8 |
| 8 | NYG | 28 | 23.1 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | HOU | 1 | 13.5 |
| 11 | GB | 30 | 23.8 |
| 12 | PHI | 20 | 20.2 |
| 13 | BAL | 18 | 19.5 |
| 14 | WSH | 16 | 18.8 |
| 15 | TB | 14 | 18.1 |
| 16 | MIN | 12 | 17.4 |
| 17 | IND | 10 | 16.7 |
| 18 | DAL | 8 | 16 |
Soft matchups (def rank ≤ 12) shaded. Source: 2024 defensive rankings, cross-domain join with DraftSOS hub data.
21+. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Projections are for entertainment only. Not financial or betting advice.
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